LASSO — which was a new-start program in the previous budget — is now part of the service’s Launched Effects family of systems and has been realigned under that line item in the 2026 budget.

Drone maker AeroVironment has been manufacturing Switchblade systems for the initiative. The Switchblade 600 carries high-precision optics and an anti-armor warhead. It has upwards of 40 minutes of loitering endurance, a range of 40-plus kilometers, and a “sprint speed” of 185 kilometers per hour, according to a product description from the vendor. The all-up round weighs 65 pounds.

The request for additional loitering munitions — also known as kamikaze drones or one-way attack drones because they’re designed to destroy their targets by crashing into them — in 2026 comes as officials are undertaking a new Army Transformation Initiative to modernize the force for future high-tech combat. The service is moving to divest of capabilities that are outdated and put more money into other equipment.

“The Army Transformation Initiative, or ATI, as we’ve coined it, is a strategic shift. We’re reinvesting resources to ensure our future dominance as part of the joint force,” a senior Army officials told reporters Thursday at the Pentagon during a background briefing about the budget. “We made some tough choices to shed outdated systems and programs that no longer meet our demands of the modern battlefield,” including divesting from legacy anti-tank missiles, they noted.

Kamikaze drones have played a major role in the Ukraine-Russia war, and U.S. military leaders are taking lessons from that conflict as the seek to modernize their forces.

The Army is aiming to deliver five brigade combat teams-worth of loitering munitions in fiscal 2026. The budget request includes about $68 million for 98 fire control units, 294 all-up rounds and other program elements under LASSO. Nearly $13 million in reconciliation funding would procure an additional 19 LASSO production systems.

“Infantry Brigade Combat Teams (IBCTs) lack adequate proportional organic capabilities at echelon to apply immediate, point, long range, and direct fire effects to destroy tanks, light armored vehicles, hardened targets, defilade, and personnel targets, while producing minimal collateral damage in complex terrain in all environmental conditions,” officials wrote in budget justification documents.

Army leadership wants to give troops new kamikaze drones to fill that capability gap.

The man-portable LASSO is a day/night capable, lightweight, unmanned aerial anti-tank weapon that includes an all-up round and fire control system, according to an Army description of the technology.

“The LASSO range requirement is to fly less than or equal to 20km (straight line with auxiliary antenna) with a flight endurance that enables the Soldier to make multiple orbits within the IBCT typically assigned battlespace, to acquire and attack targets within and beyond current crew served and small arms fire. The range/endurance enables the unit to utilize reach back capability and maximize standoff. Unlike existing direct and indirect fire weapon systems, LASSO’s discreet payload and unique capability delivers Soldiers the ability to abort against targets in a dynamic situation (e.g., use of human shields) or prosecute targets that would have been deemed non-viable in past due to the higher collateral damage associated with alternative munitions,” according to budget documents. Follow-on increments are expected to support capabilities for company and below echelons, focusing on increased range, enhanced lethality and advanced payload options.

Officials noted that the program is aligned with ATI and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s directive for Army transformation and acquisition reform.

It’s also intended to support the Army’s transforming-in-contact initiative — an effort spearheaded by Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George with a particular focus on unmanned aerial systems, counter-UAS and electronic warfare capabilities — and expand prepositioned stocks in the Indo-Pacific region, where the U.S. military is concerned about a potential future conflict with China.

The LASSO program will use other transaction authority for contracting, which is intended to cut through bureaucratic red tape and help the military field new technologies faster than traditional acquisition processes. Officials also intend to award up to four hardware contracts to modernize the industrial base and generate domestic ammunition stockpiles, according to budget documents.

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Gen. Christopher Cavoli, who is dual-hatted as the Eucom chief and Supreme Allied Commander Europe for NATO, gave lawmakers an update on the war and the current battlefield situation Thursday during a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing.

“The scale of this conflict is just awe-inspiring. Thousands of tanks destroyed on both sides,” Cavoli said.

At the start of the full-scale war in February 2022, Russia had about 13,000 tanks on active status and in storage, according to Cavoli.

“They’re starting to approach near the end of … the useful tanks in storage. So, depending on how much more they lose, that will really determine how quickly they can regenerate,” he told lawmakers.

“Russian ground forces in Ukraine have lost an estimated 3,000 tanks, 9,000 armored vehicles, 13,000 artillery systems, and over 400 air defense systems in the past year,” Cavoli said in a written statement to the committee.

However, Moscow is on pace to replace those losses, he added, noting that it has expanded its industrial production, opened new manufacturing facilities, and converted commercial production lines for military purposes.

“As a result, the Russian defense industrial base is expected to roll out 1,500 tanks, 3,000 armored vehicles, and 200 Iskander ballistic and cruise missiles this year. (Comparatively, the United States only produces about 135 tanks per year and no longer produces new Bradley Fighting Vehicles.) Additionally, we anticipate Russia to produce 250,000 artillery shells per month, which puts it on track to build a stockpile three times greater than the United States and Europe combined,” Cavoli wrote.

Cavoli did not provide comparative figures for Ukraine’s equipment losses and weapons production.

Moscow’s production capability for some items, such as artillery shells and cruise missiles, has expanded “tremendously,” and it’s building one-way attack drones “in prodigious numbers,” he told senators, noting that Russian ground forces are integrating reconnaissance and kamikaze drones into their offensive operations on the battlefield.

Ukraine has used a variety of weapons — including unmanned aerial systems, artillery and Javelin missiles, among others — to destroy Russian tanks and other equipment.

Cavoli noted that both sides in the conflict are also conducting long-range attacks, with the Russians deploying cruise missiles and glide bombs and the Ukrainians relying mainly on one-way attack drones.

Ukraine is also using “some indigenously produced cruise missile systems — one in particular that I’ve got in mind that we can talk about in closed session,” Cavoli told SASC members.

The U.S. has provided large quantities of UAS — including kamikaze drones such as Switchblades and the Phoenix Ghost family of systems — to Kyiv since the war began to help it counter Russia’s invasion.

However, Ukraine’s defense industry has ramped up and is producing many of its own munitions.

“I would say they’re the world leaders in one-attack drone technology,” Cavoli told lawmakers.

President Donald Trump, noting the heavy losses on both sides of the conflict, has been pressuring Ukraine to reach a peace deal with Russia.

Meanwhile, the U.S. military is learning lessons from the war.

Cavoli mentioned the Army’s transforming-in-contact initiative — which is focused on modernizing the force with UAS, counter-UAS and electronic warfare — as an example of how the Defense Department is shaking things up based on what officials are seeing in Europe.

“Our use of drones has changed deeply across the joint force. Before this conflict, in the U.S. Army, for example, we had very few [UAS], but large drones associated with large units. Now we’re proliferating smaller drones to smaller units and having a larger number of drones in lower and lower hands. Fundamental change in the way where we’re doing business,” he said.

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The latest Digital Talon exercise, conducted earlier this month in the Middle East region, included a variety of robotic capabilities that could play a significant role in future conflicts.

“Digital Talon 3.0 … tested the electronic and mechanical effectiveness of robotics and autonomous systems (RAS), the capabilities of over-the-horizon communications between unmanned systems, and testing aerial autonomous launch and recovery of an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) off a unmanned surface vessel (USV),” NAVCENT stated in a press release Sunday.

The exercise involved Task Group 59.1, which was established earlier this year and reports to Task Force 59 — a key unit based in the Middle East under 5th Fleet that’s helping the Navy operationalize AI and uncrewed platforms for real-world missions.

“Under Digital Talon 3.0 we were able to test the remote launch of a loitering munition, and vertical take-off and landing of UAVs from a USV,” Lt. Luis Echeverria, commanding officer of the new task group, said in a statement, adding that these “evolutions resulted in the successful remote launch of a loitering munition at sea.”

This wasn’t the first time that a robo-ship operated by the Navy launched a kamikaze drone.

During a Digital Talon exercise last year, the unit successfully attacked a target boat with a “Lethal Miniature Aerial Missile System” fired from a MARTAC T-38 Devil Ray USV, according to officials.

However, the latest iteration of the exercise expanded the over-the-horizon capabilities of these types of uncrewed systems, according to Echeverria.

These efforts are unfolding as the Navy steams ahead with new initiatives to incorporate more unmanned and autonomous technologies into the force.

The sea service established a new “robotics warfare specialist” general rating earlier this year.

“RW Sailors will enable Robotic and Autonomous System (RAS) operations and maintenance at the tactical edge. RWs will be the subject matter experts for computer vision, mission autonomy, navigation autonomy, data systems, artificial intelligence and machine learning on our RAS platforms,” according to a NAVADMIN announcement from Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Lisa Franchetti released in February.

In September, Franchetti unveiled “Project 33,” which is part of her “CNO Navigation Plan” and places a heavy emphasis on robotic systems and information dominance as the service prepares for a potential conflict with China in the Indo-Pacific.

“The Chairman of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has told his forces to be ready for war by 2027 — we will be more ready,” Franchetti wrote, acknowledging that the Defense Department “cannot manifest a bigger traditional Navy in a few short years.”

Incorporating more robo-ships and other uncrewed platforms into the fleet is seen as a solution to that problem.

“Project 33 is how we will get more ready players on the field by 2027,” she added, stating that the sea service will by then have integrated proven robotic and autonomous systems for routine use by the commanders who will employ them.

Senior Navy officials envision these types of systems as being useful for sea-denial missions.

Adm. Samuel Paparo, commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, said unmanned platforms like those that are part of the Pentagon’s Replicator initiative offer significant benefits. They fit in with the “Hellscape” warfighting concept that he’s laid out for a potential conflict with China in the Taiwan Strait.

“Certainly, these systems are ideal in enclosed spaces … if you can deploy it,” he said last week at a Brookings Institution event. “For closed spaces, for executing sea denial, this can be a very key capability.”

Technologies that the Pentagon is trying to accelerate under Replicator include loitering munitions and other types of drones, USVs and unmanned underwater vehicles, among other tools.

Last week, the Defense Innovation Unit, which is playing a key role in the initiative, unveiled the recent winners of Replicator software contracts.

Meanwhile, Task Force 59 and Task Group 59.1 aren’t the only Navy units experimenting with new unmanned systems.

Earlier this year, the service stood up Unmanned Surface Vessel Squadron Three (USVRON Three) in San Diego to oversee a “fleet” of small uncrewed surface vessels, including the Global Autonomous Reconnaissance Craft (GARC). The organization is expected to help build the foundational knowledge required to operate and maintain small USVs and develop tactics, techniques and procedures for operations and sustainment, according to officials.

Using uncrewed surface vessels to launch loitering munitions and other types of UAVs could be a new tactic that the Navy introduces for warfighting in the coming years.

The first two Digital Talon exercises, held about a year ago, “advanced lethality and kinetic applications for unmanned systems,” but version 3.0 “examined more advanced tactics,” according to the NAVCENT news release, which attributed the observation to Royal Navy Lt. Samuel Hendy, executive officer of Task Group 59.1.

“As with all pioneering ventures and first-of-its-kind feats, there are plenty of challenges to overcome, lessons to be analyzed, but we are a learning organization and it all combines to further benefit 5th Fleets’ understanding and employment of this state-of-the-art warfare,” Hendy said in a statement. “If there is one thing we can take away, Digital Talon 3.0 affirms that the U.S. Navy, as well as her partner nations, remains at the forefront of cutting-edge unmanned system integration and deployment.”

The loitering munition fired during the exercise was a Switchblade 600, a NAVCENT spokesperson told DefenseScoop. That platform, built by AeroVironment, is also one of the systems selected for accelerated acquisition by the U.S. military via Replicator.

The drone is designed to carry high-precision optics and an anti-armor warhead. It has upwards of 40 minutes of loitering endurance, a range of 40-plus kilometers, and a “sprint speed” of 185 kilometers per hour, according to a product description from the vendor. The all-up round weighs 65 pounds.

“Equipped with class-leading, high-resolution EO/IR gimbaled sensors and advanced precision flight control, Switchblade 600 empowers the warfighter with quick and easy deployment via tube-launch, and the capability to fly, track and engage non-line-of-sight targets and armored vehicles with precision lethal effects without the need for external ISR or fires assets,” according to a company product description, which noted that the system’s “wave-off and recommit capability allows operators to abort the mission at any time and then re-engage either the same or other targets multiple times based on operator command.”

With regard to the USV and other drones that were involved in the latest Digital Talon exercise, the NAVCENT spokesperson said: “Specific effects and capabilities relevant to Digital Talon 3.0 were provided via GSA contracts for contractor-owned, contractor-operated platforms.”

The commander of Special Operations Forces Central Command, Avenger-class mine countermeasures ship USS Devastator, U.S. Coast Guard Sentinel-class fast response cutter USCGC Emlen Tunnell and industry partners also participated in the event, according to NAVCENT.

Updated on Nov. 26, 2024, at 3:30 PM: This story has been updated to include additional information provided to DefenseScoop by a NAVCENT spokesperson regarding the loitering munition and other capabilities that were involved in Digital Talon 3.0.

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The company on Thursday will be the last of three contractors tapped for the initiative to officially unveil their offering.

In April, the Defense Department announced that Anduril, AeroVironment and Teledyne FLIR won contracts to provide kamikaze drones for the program, as the Marines move to give dismounted troops enhanced strike capabilities under a modernization plan known as Force Design. The contracts included $8.9 million for AeroVironment, $12.1 million for Teledyne FLIR and $6.5 million for Anduril, but the deals could have a total combined value of up to $249 million, according to the Pentagon. Work is expected to be completed by April 2026.

AeroVironment announced in April that the next-generation Block 20 variant of its Switchblade 300 system had been selected for the program. In May, Teledyne FLIR introduced its new Rogue 1 platform, which the company said it was offering for the OPF-L effort. But Anduril kept its product under wraps until this week.

The Bolt is a vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) drone that doesn’t require a runway. It’s also “man-packable,” according to Anduril, with a gross weight of about 15 pounds.

“There’s a sort of basic backpack form factor that that this packs down into, and you can throw it on your back and bring it with you. So in that respect, yeah, we really mean sort of the ability of a single operator to carry it, set it up, launch it, use it,” Chris Brose, the company’s chief strategy officer, told DefenseScoop during a call with reporters to discuss the system ahead of the official unveiling.

The company is touting the technology as an “autonomous” air vehicle, equipped with an AI software package called Lattice, that doesn’t require nearly as much operator training and engagement as some of the first-person-view drones that have been widely employed in places like Ukraine.

The system offers autonomous waypoint navigation, “target-agnostic object tracking, customizable standoff distances and engagement modalities,” according to the firm.

Troops can “launch a Bolt and send it out into a certain area, you know, kind of draw a bounding box on a map and basically put it in a loiter to do surveillance or to be on call in the event that another sensor detects a threat out in that environment,” Brose told DefenseScoop.

“The system has … the onboard intelligence to be able to discern basic, you know, kind of battlefield objects, people, vehicles, things of that sort. But then if there is something that’s unknown to the [AI and computer vision] system, you know, the ability to surface … what could be something that’s anomalous or something that’s not understood. Or just give the operator the ability to, you know, kind of extend their understanding of the battlespace and if there is something that’s unknown, to basically flag it, I mean, to put a bounding box around it and say, ‘Hey, I want you to kind of further surveil this’ or ‘I want you to stick with this to help me gather more information about what that might be,’” Brose said. “And if they make the decision that they want to do something about it, you know, they can also then direct the system to attack in different ways … Whether, you know, it’s a particular kind of angle of ingress or angle of attack, you know, whether it’s top down, you know, these are all things that the user can select … with like a click of the button, so to speak. And then the system does the rest and sort of takes that direction or intent and executes the command.”

Algorithms onboard the kamikaze drone can maintain terminal guidance and enable the weapon to hit its target even if connectivity with the human operator is lost during an attack, according to company officials, who also said the unmanned aerial system is compatible with a variety of warheads that can be swapped out.

The platform has more than 40 minutes of endurance, 20 kilometers of range, and can strike light vehicles, dismounted personnel, trenches or other targets, according to Anduril, with a munition payload capacity of up to 3 pounds. The company did not disclose other specifications such as its top speed.

Deliveries of Bolt to the Marine Corps are slated to take place over the next six months. Brose declined to disclose how many systems will be provided for the upcoming test-and-evaluation efforts, which are expected to inform government acquisition and fielding plans in fiscal 2025 and beyond.

“I believe they’re in a phase of evaluating, you know, a handful of capabilities, Bolt being one of them. And then, you know, a larger competition will flow from there,” he said.

Meanwhile, Anduril is eyeing another branch of the U.S. military as a potential future customer for the platform.

“The Army also has requirements for smaller loitering munitions, smaller … man-packable precision fires capabilities. So, you know, I think as the Army begins to figure out, you know, how it wants to structure programs, you know, kind of what acquisition strategies it wants to put in place, funding profiles, etc., … we’re excited to be able to bring Bolt to bear for them in that regard,” Brose said. “We think, you know, there’s a lot about the system that differentiates it in terms of its autonomy, in terms of its onboard artificial intelligence, … speed, warhead, you know things of that sort. So you know, really excited to be able to potentially do more with the Army in that respect.”

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On Tuesday evening, the Defense Department announced that the Army awarded a deal to the company for an “organic, stand-off capability” for dismounted infantry units to destroy tanks, light armored vehicles, hardened targets and enemy personnel. However, it didn’t identify which specific system the service was buying.

“We have no additional information to provide at this time, beyond what is reflected in the initial contract announcement,” a DOD spokesperson told DefenseScoop in an email Wednesday.

But then AeroVironment confirmed in a release on Wednesday that the agreement is for Switchblade drones to meet a “Lethal Unmanned Systems” requirement for the Army. DefenseScoop was later told that both the Switchblade 300 and 600 variants will be provided to the Army under the IDIQ contract.

Deliveries are expected to start in “months,” according to an AeroVironment release.

“AV is proud to have been selected to provide Switchblade for this critical and urgent Army requirement,” Brett Hush, the company’s senior vice president and general manager of loitering munition systems, said in a statement. “Starting with the LUS Directed Requirement, we are well positioned to meet the Army’s emerging needs, leveraging our robust production capability and supply chain capacity to ensure rapid fielding and enhanced combat overmatch for our soldiers.”

Unlike traditional munitions, loitering munitions — also known as kamikaze drones or one-way-attack unmanned aerial systems — can fly around until they identify a target. They destroy their target by crashing into it, and they can be armed with a warhead to enhance their potency.

Funding under the five-year deal will be determined with each order, with an estimated completion date of Aug. 26, 2029, according to DOD’s announcement.

DefenseScoop reached out to a strategic communications director for Assistant Secretary of the Army for Acquisition, Logistics and Technology Doug Bush for comment about the latest award. An Army official directed DefenseScoop’s query to the spokesperson in the Office of the Secretary of Defense.

The Switchblade 600 carries high-precision optics and an anti-armor warhead. It has upwards of 40 minutes of loitering endurance, a range of 40-plus kilometers, and a “sprint speed” of 185 kilometers per hour, according to a product description from the vendor. The all-up round weighs 65 pounds.

“As an all-in-one, man-portable solution, Switchblade 600 includes everything required to successfully plan and execute missions and can be set up and operational in less than 10 minutes. Equipped with class-leading, high-resolution EO/IR gimbaled sensors and advanced precision flight control, Switchblade 600 empowers the warfighter with quick and easy deployment via tube-launch, and the capability to fly, track and engage non-line-of-sight targets and armored vehicles with precision lethal effects without the need for external ISR or fires assets,” according to a company product description.

“Patented wave-off and recommit capability allows operators to abort the mission at any time and then re-engage either the same or other targets multiple times based on operator command,” per the description.

Meanwhile, the tube-launched Switchblade 300 Block 20 can be deployed in less than 2 minutes and has a range of 30 kilometers, upwards of 20 minutes endurance, and a “sprint speed” of 161 kilometers per hour. The all-up round weighs only about 7 pounds, according to a product description.

“Cursor-on-target GPS coordinates provide situational awareness, information collection, targeting and feature/object recognition, that together deliver the actionable intelligence and precision firepower needed to achieve mission success across multiple domains,” per the description.

The Army is pursuing the Switchblade 600 for the initial increment of its Low Altitude Stalking and Strike Ordnance (LASSO) program. The service requested $120.6 million to procure LASSO production systems in fiscal 2025 as the U.S. military moves to beef up its arsenal of loitering munitions.

Acquisition of the Switchblade 600 is also being accelerated under the Pentagon’s Replicator initiative, which aims to field multiple thousands of autonomous systems by August 2025 to counter China’s military buildup in the Indo-Pacific. Plans call for purchasing more than 1,000 Switchblades to support Replicator, Gen. James Mingus, the Army’s vice chief of staff, told lawmakers in June.

AeroVironment is already delivering Switchblades to the Army under a contract awarded in December 2023 to help meet the service’s Lethal Unmanned Systems-directed requirement, according to the company.

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The extra money for the loitering munitions — also known as kamikaze drones or one-way attack drones — is coming from the national security supplemental passed by Congress and signed into law by President Joe Biden last week, as well as the Defense Department’s Replicator initiative, according to Assistant Secretary of the Army for Acquisition, Logistics and Technology Doug Bush.

“That was part of our request was additional funding for those munitions as part of answering a European Command [joint urgent operational need]. That’s why it was in there. So yeah, they fully funded that” in the supplemental, Bush told DefenseScoop during a roundtable with reporters at the Pentagon. “That, plus the funding we had ourselves, plus help from our friends at OSD in Replicator … moves us way further down the line to just getting into larger-scale production than we would have been otherwise this year,” he said.

DefenseScoop asked Bush about the total amount of extra funding that the Army is expecting for LASSO.

“I have to be careful because on Replicator, I can’t give specific numbers. But … we’re north of $100 million if you add it all together. And we had done some ourselves. So we had done about 20 [million dollars] of our own internal reprogramming. And then we got Replicator. And we got the 72 [million]. So we’re well north of 100 [million] now when you put it all together. But I don’t want to get ahead of any Replicator announcements on specifics,” he said.

The Army chose AeroVironment’s Switchblade 600 for the first increment of LASSO. However, it doesn’t intend for it to be a winner-take-all program for industry, Bush has said.

Earlier this year, DefenseScoop broke the news that the Switchblade 600 was picked for the first tranche of the secretive Replicator effort. Other types of unmanned systems for the Navy and counter-drone systems for the Marine Corps, were also selected by Defense Department leaders for the first tranche, DefenseScoop recently reported. The Pentagon has been seeking funding approvals from lawmakers to support the initiative, including through reprogramming.

With regard to reprogrammed funding related to Replicator and LASSO, “I can’t say it’s in our bank account yet, but we believe it’s coming. And then we get our supplemental funding. So you know, we’re piecing together a way to go faster than we would have been otherwise, which is great for the Army,” Bush told DefenseScoop at the roundtable.

Unlike traditional munitions, loitering munitions can fly around until they identify a target. And unlike armed unmanned aerial systems that launch missiles, kamikaze drones destroy their target by crashing into it. They can be armed with a warhead to enhance their potency.

LASSO weapons are part of the Army’s vision for a family of low-altitude UAS that are “semi-autonomous (human-in-the-loop) unmanned aerial systems that improves the Infantry Brigade Combat Team (IBCT) lethality in terms of stand-off and destruction against dismounted formations, armored vehicles, and tanks,” according to budget justification documents.

“Unlike existing direct and indirect fire weapon systems, LASSO’s discreet payload and unique capability delivers Soldiers the ability to abort against targets in a dynamic situation (e.g., use of human shields) or prosecute targets that would have been deemed non-viable in past due to the higher collateral damage associated with alternative munitions,” officials wrote. “The LASSO base capability will be optimized to defeat tanks rapidly and precisely for IBCTs. Follow on increments will support future capabilities for company and below echelons. Future increments will focus on additional range increases, enhanced lethality, and advanced payload options (personnel, hard sites, etc.).”

Looking ahead as part of its regular budget submission, the service is asking lawmakers for an additional $120.6 million to procure LASSO production systems in fiscal 2025, including 54 fire control units, 434 all-up rounds and 144 reconnaissance, surveillance and target acquisition components.

Meanwhile, the Army has proposed three additional systems for the next tranche of Replicator, Bush told DefenseScoop last month, although he didn’t disclose what they were.

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The DoD’s problems are not simply financial — they are structural. The DoD’s global responsibilities are growing in every theater while China can focus its efforts on the Western Pacific. Unlike its Reagan-era buildup, the DoD can no longer afford to field more of today’s multimission planes, ships, or vehicles because they have become too costly to operate and crew. Even with better integration like that being pursued by the U.S. Air Force, China can field targets faster and more cheaply than the DoD can create effective shots on target.

Hedging for uncertainty

For nearly a decade U.S. officials have identified China as the DoD’s pacing challenge and an invasion of Taiwan is its most-stressing scenario. Stopping China’s expanding fleet of troop transports may demand more long-range fires than U.S. forces can deploy, even with CJADC2’s vision of AI-enabled decision aids. The People’s Liberation Army’s multiplying rocket forces further complicate the problem by requiring U.S. ships and aircraft to carry more defensive systems or operate farther away and use longer-range weapons that are more expensive and less numerous.

With outright denial likely off the table, deterrence increasingly depends on creating uncertainty for Chinese leaders that an invasion will go smoothly and incur acceptable losses. But pushing forward ships and aircraft to launch torpedoes or missiles against an invasion fleet is the most predictable U.S. approach — and one China is developing capabilities to counter.

For more than a decade, defense officials argued that the PLA would have difficulty fielding a kill chain that could attack aircraft carriers or mobile ground forces more than a thousand miles from China. In addition to the challenge of delivering precision-guided weapons at that range, the sensors and networks China would need to use could be disrupted or deceived by U.S. electronic warfare systems. 

Arguably the shoe is now on the other foot. To stop an invasion, U.S. ships and aircraft operating 500 miles or more from Taiwan will have to find, target, and engage a Chinese force with possibly very little notice. Fighting on its home turf, the PLA has numerous options to break the DoD’s CJADC2 kill chains and increase the confidence of Chinese leaders that an invasion could succeed.

To create uncertainty for the PLA, the DoD will need a more adaptable approach for stopping an invasion than relying on long-range fires alone. In a new report from the Hudson Institute we argue the Pentagon should field specialized forces to hedge against scenarios like the Taiwan invasion in which the one-size-fits-all U.S. military is unable to win at acceptable risk.

Using short-range uncrewed systems in each domain, a hedge force for Taiwan would act essentially as a mobile minefield, damaging transport vessels and warships in narrow “kill boxes” along the Taiwan coast. Just as important, the hedge force would also make long-range fires more effective by slowing the invasion and compelling PLA escorts to activate their defenses, creating targeting opportunities for U.S. forces to exploit through the Joint Fires Network.

Exploiting today’s technology

Although they achieve cutting-edge performance, the DoD’s connectivity initiatives are largely built on existing capabilities, rather than new development and acquisition. CJADC2’s initial instantiation is a descendant of DoD’s Project Maven and the Joint Fires Network implements work matured by DARPA. Going forward, these efforts can take advantage of an expanding range of commercial offerings — like Ukrainian forces who assembled battle networks from Starlink terminals, subscription satellite services, and open source-derived decision support software.

A hedge force for Taiwan could similarly exploit commercial innovation and existing technologies to quickly reach the field. Uncrewed air, surface, and undersea vehicles today incorporate sufficient targeting and guidance automation to find and engage slow-moving troop transports or warships in confined geographic areas. These systems would not need new advancements in AI or sensors and could operate without human intervention beyond programming their rules of engagement.

Small drones like the Switchblade, Altius 700, or A2LE have demonstrated their effectiveness as loitering munitions or by complementing missile attacks in Ukraine. Uncrewed surface vehicles like the Saronic Cutlass or Magura V5 sank more than a half-dozen ships in Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and could pose a lethal threat to Chinese forces nearing Taiwan. And undersea, vehicles like the Speartooth could place  a torpedo’s-worth of explosives under a vessel’s hull to cause catastrophic damage. Although they may lack the survivability or destructiveness of traditional weapons, these vehicles will damage transports and make them easier pickings for long-range U.S. fires.  

Buying more of today’s ships, aircraft, or weapons even with better integration, will not solve the DoD’s fundamental geographic, strategic, and fiscal disadvantages in stopping a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. To turn the tables and regain the advantage, the Pentagon needs a hedge force that will ensure every shot counts.

Bryan Clark is a senior fellow and director of the Center for Defense Concepts and Technology at the Hudson Institute, and an expert in naval operations, electronic warfare, autonomous systems, military competitions and wargaming. Previously, he served as special assistant to the chief of naval operations and director of the CNO’s Commander’s Action Group, led studies on the Navy headquarters staff, and was an enlisted and officer submariner in the Navy.

Dan Patt is a senior fellow with the Hudson Institute’s Center for Defense Concepts and Technology, where he focuses on the role of information and innovation in national security. Patt also supports strategy at national security technology company STR and supports Thomas H. Lee Partners’ automation and technology investment practice. Previously, he co-founded and was CEO of Vecna Robotics and served as deputy director for the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s (DARPA) Strategic Technology Office.

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Ground-launched loitering munitions have proliferated across battlefields in recent years including in Ukraine and the Middle East. Now, SOCOM is looking for similar weapons that can be dropped from a variety of aircraft in its inventory, including gunships, helicopters and large unmanned aerial systems.

The command began accepting capability submissions this week, and a downselect is slated for March. Those that make the cut will receive an invitation to attend the assessment event in April at the SOFWERX facility in Tampa, Florida, where they can pitch and showcase their tech, according to a special notice posted on Sam.gov.

Unlike traditional munitions, kamikaze drones can fly around until they identify a target. And unlike armed unmanned aerial systems that launch missiles, kamikaze drones destroy their target by crashing into it.

SOCOM’s stand-off precision guided munitions program office “currently supports Special Operations Forces (SOF) aircrews with short range munitions that are employed directly to known targets, visually identified by the shooter aircraft before launch, and use existing precision terminal guidance solutions such as Global Positioning System (GPS). USSOCOM has determined these traditional methods and sensors are not optimal for operations in a time compressed and highly contested environment and is looking for [air-launched loitering munitions] with improved sensor technologies to decrease the engagement time from minutes to seconds, improve targeting solutions, and increase the survivability of SOF,” according to the special notice.

The command “intends to survey industry for mature technology with minimum development required to support rapid fielding of this capability,” the notice states. “If the USSOCOM evaluation panel favorably evaluates a solution brief, negotiations for [the next phase] may immediately begin.”

The next phase will include flight demonstrations anticipated for later this year. Those events will give the command a pathway to downselect systems for full integration, operational testing, production and fielding, according to officials.

The desired endurance for the loitering munitions is 45 minutes for weapons that can be deployed from a common launch tube, and 120 minutes for those that use other launch methods. The desired range for those is 20 nautical miles and 60 nautical miles, respectively, according to assessment criteria provided by SOFWERX.

Other characteristics of interest include minimum and maximum airspeed and altitude; payload capacity; sensors and seekers; command and control; counter-detection; warhead and fusing; aircraft integration standards; and employment from a variety special ops aircraft.

The command is eyeing loitering munitions that could be deployed from AC-130J Ghostrider gunships, MQ-9 Reaper drones, MH-60 helicopters and other platforms.

Submissions from those who wish to participate in the assessment event are due March 15.

SOCOM isn’t the only Defense Department component on the hunt for air-launched drones with loitering capabilities.

For example, the Army has a Launched Effects program. In December, the service conducted a successful flight test involving the launch of an Anduril-made Altius 700 unmanned aerial system from a Black Hawk helicopter, according to a release.

Anduril has developed a loitering munition variant of the system known as the Altius 700M.

The Army planned to conduct a flight test of a fully integrated launched-effects prototype early this year. The service is aiming for a final operational demonstration by the end of fiscal 2024 and a rapid fielding decision in 2025, per the release.

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Sources who spoke to DefenseScoop on the condition of anonymity last week said Switchblade 600 kamikaze drones made Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks’ cut for the loitering munitions capability set, via the Army’s Tactical Aviation and Ground Munitions (TAGM) program.

Switchblade 600s, built by AeroVironment, are designed to destroy armored vehicles and other targets. They have a 24-mile range, 40 minutes of loitering endurance and the ability to fly at speeds of up to 115 miles per hour, according to a product description on the manufacturer’s website.

The Pentagon submitted a spending plan and reprogramming requests to Congress on Jan. 31 for the Replicator initiative, which would allow the Department of Defense to ramp up and accelerate production for selected capabilities.

The DOD’s stated goal for the first increment is to counter China’s military buildup by fielding thousands of attritable “autonomous” systems in multiple domains by August 2025.

“The Army’s involved [in Replicator]. I am not in a position to be able to talk in detail. A lot of the details are classified. I think the reports though about Congress getting a reprogramming [request] — that’s true. So, Congress will need to support this effort. And hopefully we’ll make our case and they will be supportive. I think the Army put forward several good ideas, but so did the other services … And the department has been choosing among them,” Assistant Secretary of the Army for Acquisition, Logistics and Technology Doug Bush said during a roundtable Monday hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“I’m always excited about anything we can do to go faster on new technology. And if Congress supports it, I think this could become a good thing that happens on a cycle, where it gives us … a way to kind of between appropriations bills, move faster on critical new tech,” he said.

During an interview with DefenseScoop in December, Bush acknowledged that the Army proposed unmanned aerial systems for the initiative. However, he declined to identify the drones.

“I can’t [say which group of UAS they are part of], OK. But [they’re] not super small. So, I think, more focused on things with a bit longer range, with a bit more punch than like, you know, a very small quadcopter. So, bigger than that,” Bush told DefenseScoop.

The Pentagon has been tight-lipped about which capability sets and specific systems have been selected for Replicator. Hicks has noted her desire to keep certain details out of the public eye in order to avoid tipping off China or other potential adversaries.

“The deputy secretary selected capability areas in December. The military departments then identified specific systems and associated acquisition strategies to meet those capability needs. The department recently notified our congressional committees of jurisdiction of those system requests, on plan with Replicator’s established timeline. We have no further details to provide on individual systems at this time,” Pentagon spokesperson Eric Pahon told DefenseScoop last week after being asked to confirm the Switchblade 600 selection.

Pahon also declined to provide specifics regarding how much funding might be reprogrammed through Replicator for loitering munitions this year.

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The DOD’s stated goal of Replicator is to counter China’s massive, ongoing military buildup by fielding thousands of attritable autonomous systems in multiple domains by August 2025. Replicator selections for to-be-fielded products will be made across roughly 10 technology portfolios or sets and announced in various tranches, with the first encompassing more “mature” capabilities that have already been proven within U.S. military components.

The Pentagon recently revealed that a small number of capabilities were chosen last month to be prioritized for the initial Replicator tranche — but officials would not identify them. In December, Assistant Secretary of the Army for Acquisition, Logistics and Technology Doug Bush had previously suggested to DefenseScoop that the service nominated several drone systems for the initiative.

Sources who spoke to DefenseScoop on the condition of anonymity this week said AeroVironment-built Switchblade 600 attack drones made Hicks’ cut for the Replicator loitering munitions capability set, via the Army’s Tactical Aviation and Ground Munitions (TAGM) program.

With a 24-mile range, 40 minutes of loitering endurance and the ability to fly at speeds of up to 115 miles per hour, Switchblade 600s are built to destroy armored vehicles and other targets in multi-domain military operations.

Since Replicator was unveiled by Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks in August, she and officials across the Defense Department have been tight-lipped about certain aspects of how the initiative is really coming together, pointing to a need for secrecy so as not to tip off adversaries.

“The deputy secretary selected capability areas in December. The military departments then identified specific systems and associated acquisition strategies to meet those capability needs. The department recently notified our congressional committees of jurisdiction of those system requests, on plan with Replicator’s established timeline. We have no further details to provide on individual systems at this time,” Pentagon spokesperson Eric Pahon told DefenseScoop on Friday after being asked to confirm the Switchblade 600 selection.

Pahon also declined to provide specifics regarding how many millions in funding might be reprogrammed through Replicator for the loitering munitions in 2024.

“We submitted a spend plan and reprogramming requests to Congress [on Jan. 31]. We hope they will act quickly, which will allow us to ramp up and accelerate production on Replicator capabilities. We aren’t able to provide specifics on the reprogramming request at this time,” he said.

Notably, loitering munitions are just one of multiple different capability areas that DOD seeks to accelerate with Replicator.

During a press briefing with reporters in November, Hicks said “the idea that this is all about sort of kinetic swarms I think is very misleading.”

“I don’t think ‘kamikaze drone’ is the right way to think about it. You need to think, again, well beyond the kinetic side of this into the ability to deliver logistics, command and control, ISR, if you will, and again, multiple domains,” she said.

In response to DefenseScoop’s questions, Pahon would not detail the other Replicator capability sets that Hicks’ team approved. He also hinted that more selections and considerations for loitering munitions may be made in the near term.

“The department is constantly seeking opportunities to bring in new vendors across a multitude of capability areas. This is reflective of [the Defense Innovation Unit’s] core mission to engage emerging technology providers through the commercial solutions offering process. We have no further details to provide on individual systems at this time,” he said.

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